Indicators and Warnings intelligence, commonly referred to as I&W, is developed to provide early warning intelligence to operational units. With the identification of unanticipated activity by the criminals, law enforcement management may determine that they should review and possibly change their current plan.

“Indicators” and “Warnings” are defined as follows:

• Indicators assist law enforcement in determining if a criminally related person or group is performing activities as anticipated based on law enforcement intelligence or if an activity is being conducted that does not appear to relate to the anticipated criminal activity.
• Warnings assist law enforcement in identifying activities that could endanger one or more elements of the law enforcement organization(s) involved in an ongoing mission.

To develop valid Indicators and Warnings, law enforcement intelligence must have an in-depth understanding of the criminals and their operations. With this understanding, the criminal intelligence unit can effectively identify those actions completed or not completed by the criminal element or their criminal support groups that “indicate” the criminal element is performing as anticipated by law enforcement. If they are not performing as anticipated, the next questions to be answered are:

• Why?
• What caused the change?

The analysis can also provide warning that some portion of the law enforcement operation may have been compromised, possibly placing law enforcement personnel and equipment in danger.

Indicators and Warnings are developed and set in place as soon as the Intelligence Collection Plan is developed. They are updated throughout the duration of the mission. The following figure shows the Indicators and Warnings Intelligence Report is generated during the Operations Plan Development Phase of the mission and provides input for the operational function of the following mission phase, “Conduct Mission.”